Will Any State Flip Party in 2020 Presidential Election?


Next question today is, Hey, do you believe
that any state is going to flip party in the 2020 presidential election from the 2016 results? There’s actually a much bigger conversation
to be had here, but first let’s think it through. I think Arizona is certainly a possibility. Um, Donald Trump is a, the Democrats had a
very strong showing in Arizona, um, during the midterms and polling is looking very strong
in Arizona. So Arizona is a possibility that that might
flip in 2020 when we talk about key States that went to Trump, uh, by a little bit, but,
uh, in 2016 but could go the other way. North Carolina is certainly a possibility. George is a possibility, although less likely,
I think if Georgia goes blue in 2020, it will be a landslide against Donald Trump. I find it hard to believe there would be a
situation where Georgia is isolated as a state that flips and otherwise the election is basically
as in 2016 even though we have 50 individual elections, there are still trends and there
is still momentum. And I think if Georgia goes blue, um, a lot
of other things will go blue as well. I think it’s conceivable that Minnesota, if
you want to find a blue state that could go to Trump, it’s possible. Minnesota has been sort of a right leaning
a little bit lately and the numbers are not looking as cleanly positive for the eventual
democratic nominee. I don’t think that it’s super likely. There are people talking about New Hampshire
as well. Um, I think that there’s actually another
interesting possibility if we want to. So look at Florida for example. Florida is a state that is a very important
state in many elections because it sometimes goes to the Democrats, sometimes it goes to
the Republican and it’s often pretty close. I think that in 2020, we could have a pretty
wacky result where the popular vote results are very similar to 2016 and that the democratic
challenger will win by several million votes. But you could either have a Trump reelection
with a similar electorial vote margin, uh, as in 2016 or you could have a very similar
popular vote result and a democratic win if some key States, like for example, there,
there was a map I was looking at Florida and Ohio could remain with Trump, but he could
still lose Elekta morally. And um, there are some pretty wacky maps that,
uh, have been put together that are at least conceivably plausible based on state polling
right now. But if I had to say, what is the the most
likely flip, I think it’s Arizona to go blue, North Carolina, maybe to go blue. Uh, the governor there is somewhat popular. Um, and I, I think the one thing to consider
when we look at these numbers is that because there is no democratic nominee yet, the Republican
propaganda machine has not yet been able to just focus on any one democratic candidate. Whereas every democratic candidate has been
talking about Donald Trump. Sometimes even during the debates, democratic
candidates won’t even talk about their own policy. They will just, there’ll be asked a question
about what they would do and they will just criticize Donald Trump. We’ve seen a Pete Buddha judge do it. We’ve seen CommonWell Harris do it. I don’t, I won’t list everybody because almost
everyone has done it at least at some point during the debates. Uh, I think the most likely scenario in 2020
is very similar results nationally in the popular vote and close results in some of
these key States, which might go the other way this time. So I think that if a democratic candidate
is going to win and defeat Trump in November of 2020 you will see a similar popular vote
win as we saw in 2016 two three, 4 million votes, something like that. But you will see small margins go the other
way in those few key States that that made it for Trump, it was Wisconsin, it was Michigan,
Pennsylvania, North Carolina. That’s where I think you will see this election
won or lost. It’s not a reason to ignore other places. You still got to work in other places, but
I think ultimately small margins in those key States are going to be the difference
maker. Last question today. Hey David. How will Joe Biden handle Ukraine attacks
from Donald Trump if he becomes the nominee? This, this is a good question because this
has already come up and Joe Biden is completely mangled the answer. I believe that Joe Biden needs to fight back
when that issue comes up. If Joe Biden is the nominee and issues of
Hunter Biden’s job at the Ukrainian gas company are woven into the discussion about Trump
and impeachment. Other day I saw an interview that Joe Biden
gave where he was asked about it and he just, he seemed totally disoriented. He seemed dazed almost. How has he not come up with a strong answer
on this issue? He’s already looking weak about it. So a few thoughts that I have. Number one, Biden needs a strategy. I would sort of workshop it and there’s a
few different angles you could take. One angle you could take and say, Oh, hold
on a second, hold on a second.

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